I invested about S$10,000 1.5 weeks ago through a combination of manual purchases of ETFs, individual stocks and manual funds transfers into our robo-advisor accounts. The market dip then was not as big as the one today, which I consider a market fall. Which is why I invested more at about S$20,000 into the markets.
I feel like we are coming to the end of stage 1 when the market selloff is starting to worsen. Stage 1 Round 1 was 1.5 weeks ago when I invested about S$10,000. Stage 1 Round 2 is now and I have invested double the amount at S$20,000. Each stage for me has 2 rounds when the conditions deteriorate significantly to lead into the next round or stage.
Even if the markets stay at the specific stage and round for a while without going anywhere, my Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) every week should be sufficient to keep increasing my position over time. The same applies even if the markets improve after that. It’s just that I won’t be manually making such investments of bigger amounts.
But it’s important I utilise my cash when the specific stage and round is reached. That’s the whole point of building up a large cash position. It’s for investing into income-producing assets and equities is just one asset class for me. So I don’t plan to use up too much of my cash. Still have to keep it for possible property investing that I will explain later.
Because I can only guess where the markets is headed as we continue to grapple with the costs of the worsening virus situation on the global economy. Even if it trends downwards for a period of time, no one knows for sure how severe and how long it would take for the recovery to kick in.
If it goes into Stage 2 Round 1, I should invest about S$50,000 by then. More than double of the S$20,000 I have invested now in Stage 1 Round 2. Because that’s when I believe job cuts will start. Right now, companies are doing everything they can to preserve jobs. By cutting salaries and bonuses of middle to senior management.
As long as the job market doesn’t get impacted much, most of us can keep our jobs as the main source of income. Even if there is no to minimal increase in pay and no to some bonus awarded. This means that even a drastic fall in equity markets can be followed by a quick rebound once the economy starts to recover. And people begin to spend and invest more.
However, job cuts mean the loss of our main source of income for the most of us. Once this happens, anything is possible and a recession or market crash can be prolonged. A widespread loss of jobs can happen within a short time hitting some industries harder than others.
The worse part is that it takes a much longer time for the jobs to return. Sometimes in a different form as the economy will have to restructure to recover. And we no longer have the relevant skill sets or are too old to apply for these jobs.
Unfortunately, this is also the best time to invest because both the equity and property markets will be down. It’s just a matter of whether you are in a position to do so. Which is why I’m keeping a lookout for Stage 2 Round 1. Job loss presents a bigger danger to us then not investing sufficiently.
There’s something else too. We went for a property viewing over the weekend. Since we will have to move to a bigger place in the next few years, we are on the lookout for a 3 to 4 bedroom apartment. Chances are we will have to sell our current 2 bedroom apartment before buying the next apartment to avoid paying the ABSD. This is for home-ownership and not property investment if we don’t de-couple.
If we de-couple, we start going into the area of property investing since it’s possible for us to buy a 3 to 4 bedroom apartment while hanging on to our 2 bedroom apartment. The latter should generate rental income for us. We have not considered property investing before but we know it requires large downpayments that drawdown our cash and CPF balances.
Another reason why we keep a large cash balance is to give ourselves the possibility of property investing. Equities is just one asset class and we will eventually have to diversify into another asset class. If done well, property investing can generate more wealth than equities with the use of higher leverage. If done poorly, that high levels of debt in the form of housing loans/mortgages from property investing can destroy wealth faster than equities.
So we will continue to invest in the equity markets cautiously while keeping a lookout for our jobs and property. With a large cash balance as a buffer to give ourselves options. That’s how we have positioned ourselves and we hope it works out.